Home Buying Arielle Dixon January 16, 2026
Mortgage rates have moved lower after an extended period of elevated borrowing costs, creating renewed opportunity across the Bay Area housing market.
Recent data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovering just above 6 percent, marking its lowest level in more than three years. In a region where affordability plays a central role in decision-making, even modest shifts in interest rates can materially influence purchasing power, timing, and long-term planning.
This does not signal a return to the ultra-low rate environment of the early 2020s. It does, however, represent a meaningful reset after years of volatility.
| Mortgage Product | Current Average Rate | One Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | ~6.0% | ~7.0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | ~5.3% | ~6.3% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)
These averages reflect the lowest national mortgage rates since late 2022, before rapid increases reshaped buyer demand and slowed transaction volume across many Bay Area submarkets.
Mortgage rates are shaped by inflation trends, bond market performance, and broader economic signals.
As inflation data has moderated and long-term Treasury yields have stabilized, lenders have been able to price loans more competitively. Policy signals supporting mortgage-backed securities have further contributed to a calmer lending environment.
Market analysis summarized by Investopedia suggests today’s conditions are more stable than the volatility experienced over the past several years, even as rates remain sensitive to future economic data.
Lower mortgage rates influence every segment of the housing market.
Buyers may experience improved purchasing power or greater confidence when evaluating next steps
Sellers may see renewed interest as affordability improves at the margin
Homeowners may reassess refinancing or long-term planning with greater clarity
Market conditions are only one part of the equation. For many homeowners, timing decisions are also shaped by lifestyle changes, equity planning, and long-term goals. I explore those considerations in more depth in Is Spring the Best Time to Sell? A 2025 Market Snapshot.
To illustrate why this rate shift matters locally, consider a simplified Bay Area scenario.
Purchase Price: $1,750,000
Down Payment: 20 percent
Loan Amount: $1,400,000
At a 7.0 percent interest rate, the estimated principal and interest payment would be approximately $9,300 per month.
At a 6.0 percent interest rate, that payment drops to approximately $8,400 per month.
That difference of roughly $900 per month, or more than $10,000 per year, highlights how even a one-point rate adjustment can meaningfully affect cash flow and flexibility in higher-priced Bay Area markets.
This example is illustrative only and does not account for taxes, insurance, or individual loan structures. Even with lower mortgage rates, the Bay Area remains defined by limited inventory, strong long-term demand, and price points well above national averages. Affordability improvements tend to be incremental, but they are still meaningful when paired with sound strategy and local insight. In many Bay Area neighborhoods, opportunity often shows up in homes that require vision rather than perfection. I share more perspective on navigating those purchases thoughtfully in How to Buy a Home That Needs Work Without Losing Your Mind. In a market as nuanced as the Bay Area, thoughtful timing and informed guidance matter more than reacting to headlines.
Mortgage rates reaching multi-year lows represent an important shift for buyers, sellers, and homeowners alike. While rates remain above historic lows, today’s environment offers renewed opportunity for those approaching the market with clarity and intention. Understanding how current mortgage conditions align with your goals, whether buying, selling, refinancing, or planning ahead, matters far more than any single headline.
If you would like a tailored perspective on how today’s rate environment intersects with the Bay Area market and your personal plans, I am always happy to walk through the numbers with you.
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Arielle understands that buying or selling a home is an important decision that's about so much more than just the price tag, and she is fully committed to helping you achieve your real estate dreams, whatever they may be.